# Table 6b: Rating Migration Risk for Near-Safe Issuers

| Country | Current Rating | Risk Type | OADR 2024 | OADR 2040 | OADR 2050 | Debt/GDP 2024 |
|---------|---------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------------|
| GBR | AA | fiscal_pressure | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 101.2 |
| FRA | AA | fiscal_pressure | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 113.1 |
| KOR | AA | demographic_pressure | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 52.5 |
| BEL | AA- | debt_trajectory | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 104.5 |
| NZL | AA+ | small_economy | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 51.2 |
| FIN | AA+ | demographic_pressure | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 82.5 |
| AUT | AA+ | eurozone_spillover | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 81.2 |

*Rating migration risk based on fiscal trajectory and demographic pressure.*
*From fiscal dominance paper: +10pp OADR → +12pp expenditure, +5pp revenue.*
*Countries currently at AA to AA+ that face downgrade pressure from aging.*